Backtest · 2026 actuals as of Nov 10, 2026
What the draft guide got right — and wrong
The 2027 kit was built from 2024–2025 points per game. Here it is run against 2026 actuals from Pro Football Reference. The top held. The method systematically missed team changes, second-year WR breakouts, new starting QBs, and injuries it cannot price.
Cutoff — read this first: All 2026 numbers are as of Nov 10, 2026 (PFR). Players had played at most 9 games; sources place the next games in Week 10 (Nov 15). This is through Week 9 in the sources' numbering, not Week 11.
What it got right
- Top held: Gibbs 26.2 PPG, JSN 25.8, Nacua 24.8, Allen 25.1, Bowers 20.9, McBride 18.1, McCaffrey 20.8, Bijan 20.0 — all Tier 1, all still top of their position.
- Exclusions, 5 of 6: Hill, Carr, Cooper, Mixon, and Conner all scored 0 in 2026.
- Tempered rookies: Boston 11.4 PPG, Tate 11.0, Concepcion 9.8 — hit-ish; Mendoza 0 starts, Tyson 0 games in the stats.
What it got wrong
- Under-ranked: Burrow 24.9 PPG (Tier 2, +8.1) and Lamb 22.4 (Tier 3, +8.0) — both top-3 at their position.
- Collapsed in the tiers: Achane 8.2 (ACL), Barkley 8.4, Baker 8.5, A.J. Brown 6.4, Stafford 15.9, Pitts 7.9.
- One exclusion was wrong: Aaron Rodgers is playing for PIT — 8 games, 14.6 PPG, 13 pass TDs. A usable QB2, not a zero.
QB — predicted vs 2026 actual
| Tier | Player | 2025 PPG | 2026 G | 2026 total | 2026 PPG | Δ | Note |
|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 21.4 | 8 | 200.7 | 25.1 | 3.7 | QB1 PPG. No missed games. |
| 1 | Drake Maye | 20.7 | 9 | 179.2 | 19.9 | -0.8 | Roughly as predicted. |
| 1 | Matthew Stafford | 20.6 | 9 | 142.9 | 15.9 | -4.7 | Tier 1 collapse — played 9G, PPG fell 4.7. |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 16.5 | 5 | 79.1 | 15.8 | -0.7 | Ankle Week 4, then thumb surgery — likely done for regular season. |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | 20.4 | 8 | 142.0 | 17.8 | -2.6 | Returned from ACL+LCL tear. |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | 18.7 | 5 | 80.0 | 16.0 | -2.7 | Blood clots in lungs, out for season. |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | 16.3 | 6 | 115.2 | 19.2 | 2.9 | Dislocated elbow Week 2, missed Weeks 3-4. |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | 16.8 | 8 | 199.1 | 24.9 | 8.1 | Biggest QB under-rank: +8.1 PPG, QB2. |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | 16.0 | 6 | 50.9 | 8.5 | -7.5 | Dislocated thumb Week 3, missed 3G. |
| 3 | Jared Goff | 17.5 | 8 | 147.4 | 18.4 | 0.9 | Steady, roughly as predicted. |
RB — predicted vs 2026 actual
| Tier | Player | 2025 PPG | 2026 G | 2026 total | 2026 PPG | Δ | Note |
|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 24.5 | 8 | 166.7 | 20.8 | -3.7 | Held, down 3.7 PPG. |
| 1 | Bijan Robinson | 21.8 | 9 | 180.0 | 20.0 | -1.8 | Held. |
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 21.6 | 8 | 209.2 | 26.2 | 4.6 | RB1 PPG and total. +4.6. |
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | 21.3 | 9 | 153.6 | 17.1 | -4.2 | Down 4.2 PPG. |
| 2 | De'Von Achane | 20.2 | 3 | 24.6 | 8.2 | -12.0 | Torn ACL Week 3, season-ending. |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | 14.5 | 7 | 58.7 | 8.4 | -6.1 | Hamstring/back, pitch count. |
| 2 | James Cook | 17.8 | 8 | 148.4 | 18.6 | 0.8 | Held, +0.8. |
| 2 | Chase Brown | 16.6 | 8 | 101.4 | 12.7 | -3.9 | Receiving held, rushing TDs collapsed. |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | 16.4 | 9 | 142.3 | 15.8 | -0.6 | Roughly as predicted. |
| 3 | Kyren Williams | 15.5 | 9 | 159.1 | 17.7 | 2.2 | Up 2.2 PPG. |
WR — predicted vs 2026 actual
| Tier | Player | 2025 PPG | 2026 G | 2026 total | 2026 PPG | Δ | Note |
|---|
| 1 | Puka Nacua | 23.4 | 7 | 173.6 | 24.8 | 1.4 | Held, +1.4. Hip/groin, missed 2G. |
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.2 | 9 | 232.1 | 25.8 | 4.6 | WR1 PPG and total. League leader in receiving yards. |
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | 19.6 | 8 | 159.7 | 20.0 | 0.4 | Held. |
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 19.1 | 8 | 157.6 | 19.7 | 0.6 | Held. |
| 2 | George Pickens | 17.2 | 8 | 104.3 | 13.0 | -4.2 | Down 4.2 PPG. |
| 2 | Drake London | 16.8 | 9 | 121.6 | 13.5 | -3.3 | Down 3.3 PPG. |
| 2 | Chris Olave | 16.8 | 8 | 141.4 | 17.7 | 0.9 | Held, +0.9. |
| 2 | Nico Collins | 15.1 | 6 | 91.6 | 15.3 | 0.2 | PPG held, games lost (hamstring). |
| 3 | A.J. Brown | 14.7 | 3 | 19.1 | 6.4 | -8.3 | FantasyData, not PFR. Traded PHI to NE, ankle + degenerative knee. |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | 14.4 | 9 | 201.8 | 22.4 | 8.0 | Biggest WR under-rank: +8.0 PPG, WR3. |
TE — predicted vs 2026 actual
| Tier | Player | 2025 PPG | 2026 G | 2026 total | 2026 PPG | Δ | Note |
|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | 18.6 | 9 | 162.8 | 18.1 | -0.5 | Held. TE2 PPG. |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | 14.7 | 7 | 146.0 | 20.9 | 6.2 | TE1 PPG. +6.2. |
| 1 | George Kittle | 14.7 | 8 | 114.3 | 14.3 | -0.4 | Held. |
| 2 | Kyle Pitts | 12.4 | 9 | 71.0 | 7.9 | -4.5 | Collapse — targets fell to ~4.1/G. |
| 2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 | 8 | 93.1 | 11.6 | -0.3 | Held. |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | 11.4 | 8 | 99.3 | 12.4 | 1.0 | Held, +1.0. |
| 2 | Harold Fannin Jr. | 11.7 | 9 | 102.3 | 11.4 | -0.3 | Held. Also a sleeper hit. |
| 3 | Tyler Warren | 11.1 | 7 | 84.1 | 12.0 | 0.9 | Held, +0.9. |
Players the guide missed entirely — top-10 PPG in 2026
| Player | Pos | 2026 PPG | Why it missed |
|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 24.6 | KC free-agent signing, 11 total TD. RB2 PPG. |
| Brock Purdy | QB | 21.4 | QB3 PPG. |
| Jordan Love | QB | 20.6 | QB4 PPG — lifted by GB WR breakouts. |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 20.5 | QB5 PPG. |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 20.0 | WR4 PPG. |
| Christian Watson | WR | 19.7 | Second-year GB breakout, 879 yds, 7 TD. |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 18.3 | RB6 PPG. |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 18.2 | Second-year GB breakout, 783 yds, 5 TD. |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 19.1 | Now LV starter, QB8 PPG. |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 18.6 | QB9 PPG. |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | 16.1 | Now NYG, TE3 PPG. |
| Malik Nabers | WR | 16.2 | WR10 PPG. |
Sleeper verdicts
- Michael Wilson — HIT, 13.4 PPG. 9G, 88 targets, 51 rec, 546 yds.
- R.J. Harvey — HIT, 11.2 PPG. 6G, receiving role is the value.
- Harold Fannin Jr. — HIT, 11.4 PPG. TE8 PPG, TE6 by total.
- Jaxson Dart — PARTIAL / TOO EARLY, 13.7 PPG. Only 2G — PPG is a 2-game sample.
- Wan'Dale Robinson — PARTIAL, 9.7 PPG. 8G, flex-usable, not a breakout.
- Rico Dowdle — MISS, 8.9 PPG. 5G, backup role in PIT.
- Kenneth Gainwell — MISS, 7.1 PPG. 9G, backup volume only.
What we learn — changes for the 2027 kit
- Weight team-change and role-change signals alongside PPG — free agency and trades are invisible to prior-year PPG on the old team (Walker, Cousins, Likely).
- Track second-year WRs separately — Green Bay's Watson and Golden broke out together and lifted Love to QB4 PPG.
- New starting QBs are a systematic blind spot — Purdy, Stroud, and Prescott were all un-tiered and ahead of Stafford, Mahomes, Hurts, and Lamar in 2026 PPG.
- Treat Tier 1/2 injury risk as a real discount, not a footnote — Hurts (blood clots, season over), Lamar (ankle + thumb surgery), Achane (ACL), Barkley (pitch count), Baker (thumb), A.J. Brown (ankle + knee).
- Do not trust a single-year PPG jump without usage behind it — Pitts collapsed to 7.9 PPG as targets fell to ~4.1 per game.
- Exclusions need re-checking, not just a retirement headline — Rodgers was excluded as retiring after 2026, but he is playing for PIT at 14.6 PPG.
Open questions / could not verify
- Week numbering: sources place the cutoff at 8–9 games through Week 9, not Week 11.
- Scoring varies across aggregators (e.g. Maye 21.1 PPG elsewhere vs 19.9 on PFR; Burrow 28.1 elsewhere vs 24.9 on PFR) — PFR is used consistently here, do not mix sources.
- A.J. Brown's total is from FantasyData, not PFR.
- Cooper's retirement was verified only via search summaries, not a primary article in this run.
- Michael Wilson's IR flag conflicts with his 9-game PFR line — unresolved.
- Jordyn Tyson's debut was reported Nov 7 but is not in PFR totals through Nov 10 — unverified.
Source: Pro Football Reference, 2026 fantasy table, https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2026/fantasy.htm — read Nov 10, 2026. Full report: workspace/research_notes/route-tree-2026-backtest-audit-20261110-2314/report.md
