REAL NUMBERS — weekly projections through Week 9, from Pro Football Reference. Not betting advice.
Start / Sit
Real numbers through Week 9, from Pro Football Reference. Don't just ask who ranks higher — ask how often each player actually wins the head-to-head.
Justin Jefferson — WR, MIN
Median 8.8 · P10–P90 0.0–19.4 · 13.6 PPG so far
Boom (>20)9%
Bust (<8)46%
Targets rising 7, then 9, then 11, snaps 93–98%. The constraint has been quarterback play.
Keenan Allen — WR, SF
Median 9.4 · P10–P90 2.2–16.6 · 10.1 PPG so far
Boom (>20)3%
Bust (<8)40%
Traded IND → SF on Nov 10 for a 2027 sixth-round pick. First game as a 49er, in a depleted receiver room.
Verdict
Justin Jefferson outscores Keenan Allen 48% of the time in this model. That's the number that matters for a start/sit call: a 55% edge is a coin flip with a lean, not a lock.
Justin Jefferson wins head-to-head48%
If the medians are within 1–2 points and the win probability is 50–60%, play the player with the higher floor (lower bust probability) if you're favoured, and the higher ceiling (higher boom probability) if you're the underdog.
