Trades — rest-of-season context
Real numbers through Week 9, from Pro Football Reference. Trade on points per game so far and the weekly range, not last week's box score. For the full PAR method (replacement level, schedule-adjusted rest of season), use the PAR Trade Lab.
Jahmyr Gibbs
26.2 PPR / game so far · median 24.1 · range 13.4–41.4
Every game in double digits. Targets falling (6, then 4, then 1) is the one thing to watch.
Derrick Henry
15.8 PPR / game so far · median 15.9 · range 5.0–35.3
Last three games 14.0, 5.9, 5.4, on about half the snaps. Week 1 (35.3) still anchors his value.
Verdict
Jahmyr Gibbs has scored 10.4 PPR/game more than Derrick Henry so far this season.
Probability Jahmyr Gibbs outscores Derrick Henry: 72%
Buy low when the usage is elite and the points haven't caught up yet — Justin Jefferson this week: targets rising, snaps at 93–98%, median only 8.8. Sell when an old big week still anchors the value — Derrick Henry: median 15.9, but his last three games are 14.0, 5.9, and 5.4. That is the trade thought, not a ranking.