Week 10 projections — Full PPR
Real numbers through Week 9 (Nov 8–9), from Pro Football Reference. Median is the median of each player's actual weekly lines; P10 / P90 come from the normal approximation using the real weekly standard deviation. Boom / bust thresholds vary by position. Not betting advice.
Not playing in Week 10: Puka Nacua — Out — MCL + PCL sprain and turf toe; likely IR, out at least a month; Jalen Hurts — IR — season over (blood clots); Lamar Jackson — IR — thumb surgery, out 6–9 weeks; De'Von Achane — IR — torn ACL, season over; Saquon Barkley — Bye — Philadelphia is off in Week 10; Baker Mayfield — Bye — Tampa Bay is off in Week 10.
Sort by:
| Player | Pos | Opp | PPG | Median | P10 | P90 | Boom | Bust | Top-12 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III KC | RB | @ ATL | 24.6 | 25.9 | 13.5 | 38.3 | 73% | 3% | 87% | 24.6 a game in Kansas City. The ceiling weeks are enormous (36.3), but the floor weeks happen too (9.7). |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | WR | @ LV | 25.8 | 25.4 | 12.7 | 38.1 | 71% | 4% | 85% | 25.8 a game — the top WR, and the highest median on the board (25.4). This week he plays with a backup QB: Darnold is out, Lock or Milroe starts. |
| Joe Burrow CIN | QB | vs PIT | 24.9 | 24.2 | 13.9 | 34.5 | 46% | 13% | 70% | 24.9 a game, and the line is rising — 3 touchdowns in Week 9, and the floor is the highest of any QB here (14.2). |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | RB | vs NE (Munich) | 26.2 | 24.1 | 10.9 | 37.3 | 65% | 6% | 81% | Every game in double digits. Targets falling (6, then 4, then 1) is the one thing to watch. |
| Josh Allen BUF | QB | @ NYJ | 25.1 | 22.6 | 9.9 | 35.3 | 40% | 22% | 60% | 25.1 a game. 9 rushing touchdowns keep the floor high — no week under 12.9. |
| Brock Bowers LV | TE | vs SEA | 20.9 | 22.3 | 13.8 | 30.8 | 87% | 1% | 96% | 20.9 a game, the TE1 by a clear margin. Missed Weeks 1–2 with a knee injury; active and producing since, including 111 yards in Week 9. |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN | WR | vs PIT | 20.0 | 22.3 | 8.5 | 36.1 | 58% | 9% | 75% | Targets climbing 7, then 16, then 12. The 3.2 week was a concussion/neck week. |
| Christian McCaffrey SF | RB | @ DAL | 20.8 | 21.8 | 15.1 | 28.5 | 64% | 0% | 90% | 20.8 a game. Played every game; the mild hamstring is being managed (Wednesday rest only). The narrowest RB range here — 13.8 to 30.7. |
| Brock Purdy SF | QB | @ DAL | 21.4 | 20.4 | 12.1 | 28.7 | 24% | 20% | 52% | 21.4 a game. The steadiest QB on the board — every played week between 12.0 and 31.3. |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL | WR | vs SF | 22.4 | 20.2 | 4.4 | 36.0 | 51% | 16% | 66% | 22.4 a game, and the widest WR range on the board (2.9–41.3). 195 receiving yards in Week 9 — the ceiling is real, and so is the floor. |
| Jordan Love GB | QB | vs MIN | 20.6 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 28.5 | 22% | 26% | 47% | 20.6 a game. Week 9 was 36.2 — the ceiling arrived with the touchdowns. |
| C.J. Stroud HOU | QB | @ CLE | 20.5 | 19.0 | 9.9 | 28.1 | 20% | 29% | 44% | 20.5 a game. 384 yards and 5 touchdowns in Week 9 — the biggest QB ceiling week on the board after Allen. |
| Derrick Henry BAL | RB | vs LAC | 15.8 | 15.9 | 3.5 | 28.3 | 34% | 21% | 54% | Last three games 14.0, 5.9, 5.4, on about half the snaps. Week 1 (35.3) still anchors his value. |
| Keenan Allen SF | WR | @ DAL | 10.1 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 16.6 | 3% | 40% | 16% | Traded IND → SF on Nov 10 for a 2027 sixth-round pick. First game as a 49er, in a depleted receiver room. |
| Justin Jefferson MIN | WR | @ GB | 13.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 19.4 | 9% | 46% | 23% | Targets rising 7, then 9, then 11, snaps 93–98%. The constraint has been quarterback play. |
| A.J. Brown NE | WR | at DET (Munich) | 6.4 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 0% | 97% | 0% | Three games played all season, 19.1 points total, 0 touchdowns. Week 10 status unresolved; bye Week 11. |
16 players verified so far — the set expands as weekly logs are verified. No player on injured reserve is ranked as playing. Numbers through Week 9, from Pro Football Reference. Not betting advice.