Week 10 · Full PPR · Real numbers through Week 9
Fantasy football, in probabilities — not hot takes.
Route Tree Report gives you the range, not just a ranking. Every player gets a median, a floor, and a ceiling, from their actual weekly lines. Then you decide — with the odds in front of you.
This week, in real numbers — Week 10
Through Week 9, from Pro Football Reference. Median, floor and ceiling are computed from each player's actual weekly lines. No player on injured reserve is ranked as playing.
| Player | Pos | Opp | PPG | Median | Range (floor – ceiling) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III KC | RB | @ ATL | 24.6 | 25.9 | 9.7 – 36.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | WR | @ LV | 25.8 | 25.4 | 12.1 – 42.5 |
| Joe Burrow CIN | QB | vs PIT | 24.9 | 24.2 | 14.2 – 39.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET | RB | vs NE (Munich) | 26.2 | 24.1 | 13.4 – 41.4 |
| Josh Allen BUF | QB | @ NYJ | 25.1 | 22.6 | 12.9 – 40.8 |
| Brock Bowers LV | TE | vs SEA | 20.9 | 22.3 | 11.0 – 28.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN | WR | vs PIT | 20.0 | 22.3 | 3.2 – 31.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey SF | RB | @ DAL | 20.8 | 21.8 | 13.8 – 30.7 |
| Brock Purdy SF | QB | @ DAL | 21.4 | 20.4 | 12.0 – 31.3 |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL | WR | vs SF | 22.4 | 20.2 | 2.9 – 41.3 |
| Jordan Love GB | QB | vs MIN | 20.6 | 19.5 | 13.1 – 36.2 |
| C.J. Stroud HOU | QB | @ CLE | 20.5 | 19.0 | 11.7 – 35.4 |
| Derrick Henry BAL | RB | vs LAC | 15.8 | 15.9 | 5.0 – 35.3 |
| Keenan Allen SF | WR | @ DAL | 10.1 | 9.4 | 1.5 – 18.3 |
| Justin Jefferson MIN | WR | @ GB | 13.6 | 8.8 | 5.2 – 29.2 |
| A.J. Brown NE | WR | at DET (Munich) | 6.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 – 7.8 |
How to read this board — the Week 10 issue →
Start / Sit, with odds
Pick two players. We show the probability each one outscores the other — not just who ranks higher.
Compare players →One name to sit: A.J. Brown — 6.4 a game, median 5.7, range 5.6 to 7.8, 0 touchdowns in 3 games.
Nothing in his 2026 line supports starting him. Full case in the Week 10 issue.
Trades, in rest-of-season terms
Don't trade on last week. Trade on rest-of-season expected points, and the probability one side actually outscores the other.
Check a trade →The weekly newsletter
Every week: the board, one genuine coin-flip call, one name to sit, a trade thought, and the waiver pickups that actually matter. The depth lives here.
Read the newsletter →Free tools, through the end of 2026
Use these every week through the playoffs — free, no account. The weekly email carries the depth: reviews and plays, every week.
Free weekly email — subscribe on Substack
One probability-first email a week. No hot takes, no player propaganda — just the range of outcomes, and what would have to be true for the boom case.
The weekly email lives on Substack now — subscribing there puts you on the real list. A copy is also saved in this browser as a backup. The publication is at routetreereport.substack.com.
Methodology in one line: median + volatility + matchup, run through a normal-distribution approximation to get P10 / P50 / P90 and boom / bust / Top-12 probabilities. Full detail on the Methodology page. Numbers through Week 9, from Pro Football Reference. Not betting advice.